CEO Market Update for Q3 2026

The past quarter has tested the property market on several fronts. Continued interest rate rises, the full return of the fuel excises this month, and changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax on residential property have all played their part. The result is a market moving with noticeably more caution.

This sentiment is reflected in the Q3 Australian Property Market Outlook 2026 survey of property professionals, which recorded a notable decline. The Market Outlook Index now sits at 5.1 out of 10 (neutral), down from 6.0 the previous quarter. Industrial remains the standout performer, holding a national sentiment score of 6.4, though this too has eased slightly from 6.9. Office continues to be the most cautious sector, posting a below neutral reading for the third consecutive quarter.

Yet if there is one constant in property, it is resilience. Uncertainty, while unsettling, tends to open doors for those prepared to look for them. Recent budget changes are a case in point, drawing a fresh wave of first-time commercial investors into the market as they explore alternatives beyond residential property.

Adding to the picture, the Census takes place on August 11. Conducted just once every five years, it offers a rare, comprehensive view of the national population. Investors will draw on it to pinpoint emerging growth areas, developers to anticipate demand and identify land opportunities, and agents to track job growth signalling the next boom sector or the smartest way to reposition a property for lease. Full results won't begiv available until mid-2027, but the wait should prove worthwhile.

Development sites remain in strong demand, particularly those with a clear planning path or existing approval already in place. Low density sites have drawn increased interest too, likely tied to negative gearing remaining available for new residential builds, though it is too early to say whether this becomes a lasting trend.

Within the industrial sector, a healthy supply of smaller units (100 to 300 square metres) continues to give purchasers strong choice, though it is proving more difficult for developers looking to realise capital. This oversupply is not evenly spread; suburbs such as Mayfield West remain firmly short on stock.

Port Macquarie continues to build momentum across both the industrial and allied health markets, echoing patterns we are seeing in the Hunter Region.

Amid this uncertainty, targeted, bespoke marketing has never mattered more. Reaching the right audience, and often a broader one, is essential to connecting with genuinely active buyers and tenants. It is a critical point, as caution can make owners hesitant to invest in marketing at exactly the moment strong promotion makes the difference between a swift sale and a stalled campaign.

Property remains cyclical, and it remains a sound investment through every cycle. Explore our latest portfolio of opportunities available now in the Q3 Commercial Collection.